WATCHING COLORADO – AT 9:16 A.M. ET:  There's been some press in the last few days suggesting that Democrats are gaining in their attempt to retain control of the U.S. Senate.  Part of that speculation has been based on the Senate race in Colorado, and the belief that the incumbent, Democratic Senator Mark Udall, would win.  Not so fast.  A new poll raises doubts.  From AP: 

DENVER — Republican Rep. Cory Gardner is leading Democratic Sen. Mark Udall in Colorado, according to a new independent poll released Thursday.

The 48-40 Gardner lead among likely voters in The Quinnipiac University Poll contrasts with two other independent polls released earlier this month that found Udall tied or slightly ahead in the race. It is from the same pollster that found Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper 10 points behind his Republican challenger, a finding that also conflicted with other polls that have shown that race essentially tied.

The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,211 voters by telephone from Sept. 10-15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

The Colorado Senate race is one of the most competitive and expensive in the nation. Republicans need to pick up six seats to win control of the chamber.

COMMENT:  We stress that this is one poll, and that, as the story indicates, it does differ from other polls taken recently.  However, polls of likely voters tend to show higher levels of Republican support than other surveys because Republicans actually are more likely to vote.  We'll be watching this race.  We hope this latest poll is the accurate one.

In North Carolina, though, Democratic incumbent Senator Kay Hagan does seem to have a stable lead over her Republican challenger, Thom Tillis.  Republicans have targeted North Carolina, and Hagan isn't all that popular.  But the state has changed over the years, with an influx of Northern liberal academics and minorities.  The Dem base is strong.  This will be a tough one.

September 18, 2014